It’s three weeks out from the election as I write this and less when you read it.
The political pundits are all over the page with predictions, and James Carville is close to cardiac arrest. Everyone has a theory and everyone is citing a poll that favors their candidate. I personally would not wager a dollar on this presidential race. The polls are interesting, but I find the back story to be more insightful.
The national polls are essentially showing both Harris and Trump at 48 percent this week. That is a tie. The seven battleground states are a mixed bag with slight swings and most within the margin of error. Pollsters on the past two elections underestimated Trump’s strength. Trump pulled it out with Clinton, but lost to Biden. The pollsters say they have made accommodations for that undervote in the polls, but who knows. It is that back story that keeps pinching me.
Trump has campaigned recently in solid Harris states of California and New York. These were not fundraisers, but actual rallies. Why campaign in deep blue states when it is the swing states that conventional wisdom states will turn the election. What message is Trump sending? I don’t know, but a campaign doesn’t spend that kind of money without an agenda.
The country has had two hurricanes in the past couple of weeks. This is an opportunity for Harris to step forward and demonstrate that the administration is in charge. President Biden and Governor DeSantis were drooling over complimenting each other over their responses to the disaster. Harris has seemed inconsequential and that has not helped her campaign. Trump has made appearances after both hurricanes that appear to have helped his standing with the voters.
Harris has surely attempted to raise her standing on the border issues and immigration. She now voices support for a more secure border and enforcement of immigration laws. That position change may be too late as the Border Patrol Union has now endorsed Trump. That endorsement is a major win for Trump and a decided blow to Harris.
Harris adopted Biden’s campaign strategy of minimizing contact with the press. That strategy appeared to be working as the polls had Harris with a significant lead until recently. To her credit Harris then appeared for several interviews with single media outlets. Even though she gave her interviews with left leaning organizations, it did improve her image. That image got tarnished when she gave an interview to 60 minutes with two different answers to the same question using the editing process. That has created some negative press for Harris. That feedback must have been intense as she agreed to do an interview with Bret Baier of Fox News on Wednesday of this week. Harris’s internal polling must be showing some significant losses in standing for her to agree to an interview on Fox News.
Early voting clearly indicates a preference for Harris. Will that continue? Trump continues to get negative press form his court cases. Will the silent Trump voters actually turn out this year as they have in the past? Will young black males go to the polls and vote for Harris, or will a significant number of them actually vote for Trump. Will republicans for Harris be a serious voting segment?
My observation is that Harris has the lead, but Trump has the current momentum. This election may well come down to who makes a critical blunder in the next two weeks. Cast your vote and then stay up late on election night as this race looks like it could be an all nighter before the voters’ choice is known.
I’m not betting.